When you get granular, it’s a wonder office real estate has been beset by such challenges. As reported by Seeking Alpha, U.S. Unemployment Varies Significantly Based on Income Levels. The top three income deciles, representing those with household incomes in excess of $75k, have an unemployment rate of 4.07% (vs 9.7% in January overall) and underemployment (ie U3 + U4) of 6.63%. This could help explain why office CRE has held up so much better than industrial (warehouse / manufacturing) space.
It could be that there is not the extent of shadow space many (I) believe and thus office CRE, which has held up better fundamentally than all other major RE classes, will bounce back sooner. Admittedly, I’d like to understand the historical relationship of these values….it’s on the to-do list.